English Analysis of the Italian parliamentary commission on the country’s depopulation trends (officially the commission on the “demographic transition”) gives us an unprecedented chance to glean Italian politicians’ real thoughts about immigration and the future of work in Italy. The commission – one of many regularly carrying out business in the Italian parliament – has been working throughout 2025 to identify causes and solutions of Italy’s population decline.
Why work in 2025 on an issue that first became apparent in the mid 1980s? No one said it better than Italy’s Minister of Economy and Finance, Giancarlo Giorgetti, in his inaugural address at the commission:
“Demography, demographers, alas, are not fashionable, but are seen a bit like easy prophets of misfortune, who say apocalyptic things that will happen in thirty or forty years and nobody takes care of it, well, in thirty or forty years we will see what happens. It is a problem of politicians, not just Italian ones. There are studies in political science on the electoral cycle that demonstrate the non-convenience of dealing with things concerning the voters of tomorrow. The theme, however, unfortunately exists today and we absolutely cannot ignore it.”
We have reviewed hundreds of pages of proceedings to uncover politicians’ genuine opinions on immigration. Although the commission operates transparently, transcripts are relatively hard to access. This scarcity seems to encourage a rare candour when addressing the complex issue of immigration.
For expats and retirees considering relocation to Italy, understanding this institutional viewpoint is vital, as it shapes the long-term stability of residency requirements, tax incentives, and public services.
Here is a summary of the current official consensus and the direction of impending policy shifts regarding migration, drawn from recent parliamentary and ministerial discussions.
The Unavoidable Consensus: Immigration is an Economic Necessity
Whatever their public stance towards immigration, there is a clear acknowledgement across Italian political and economic institutions that immigration is no longer merely a social issue, but an economic necessity.
Experts interviewed by the commission confirm that migration is the only demographic factor capable of partially countering the immediate negative balance (more deaths than births) and the steep decline in the working-age population. The scale of the demographic contraction – with the population projected to drop from nearly 59 million to under 55 million by 2050, even under optimistic scenarios – demands immediate and strategic intervention to sustain the welfare system and economic competitiveness.
The institutional view stresses that if Italy wishes to maintain its current standard of living and support its robust, albeit expensive, public health and pension systems, it must boost its workforce through external flows.
Policy Ambitions: Quality, Control, and Retention
While the necessity of migration is accepted, the discussions between politicians and experts in the Commission reveal a strong emphasis on managing the quality and efficacy of these flows, moving away from perceived chaotic methods:
Moving to “demand migration” (immigrazione da domanda)
There is a concerted push to replace what is termed “supply migration” (migration driven by crisis in origin countries) with “demand migration” (planned migration), strategically aligned with the needs of the Italian productive system. The general consensus seems to be around the following measures:
- Official policy must improve Italy’s attractiveness to qualified foreign workers. Italy currently suffers from an “extremely unfavourable” migratory balance, as it tends to export highly educated young Italians while attracting migrants with lower qualifications.
- Future efforts include streamlining processes, such as promoting the use of the EU Blue Card to facilitate the entry of specialised professions, and intervening to favour the recognition of professional qualifications obtained abroad.
- Recent measures have expanded possibilities for foreign students and those trained abroad to convert permits to work permits, but their efficiency and effectiveness in administrative application must improve.
Focus On Culture And Birth Rate
The government, particularly the Ministry for Family, maintains that Italy cannot rely solely on immigration to solve its birth rate crisis, describing this approach as “vaguely neo-colonialist”. The long-term goal remains to boost domestic Italian births by creating a “new cultural climate” and system stability.
Furthermore, government representatives allege that foreign-born individuals tend to acquire the reproductive habits of the host country quickly, meaning migration is a short-term compensatory measure, not a permanent fertility solution.
Integration and Retention as Core Policy Goals
As often reported by commission members, for migration to be economically effective, retention is key. Migrants and their children must be integrated and retained in the workforce and society. The primary issue here is that qualified new arrivals or newly naturalised citizens often use Italy as a temporary gateway before moving to other, economically stronger EU countries (like Germany or Spain) offering better salaries.
Policies discussed to tackle this retention issue include:
- Simplifying access to Italian citizenship for migrants and their descendants.
- Implementing structural integration policies covering civic inclusion and educational support.
Policy Implications for Expats and Retirees
You might be somewhat disappointed if you thought politicians had spent time considering the needs of expats and retirees moving to Italy. As we have previously highlighted, the Italian government has flip-flopped or outright walked back from measures supporting new arrivals.
Policies offering tax discounts for changes of residence are acknowledged by the Commission as part of a competitive international landscape. Discussions highlight the fragility and controversy surrounding these schemes:
- The Impatriati scheme: A key measure offering tax relief to returning expatriates has been criticised as being “almost completely sunk” due to subsequent regulatory changes. This tax cut survives but is nowhere as attractive as it was as recently as 2023.
- Need for European order: The Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, has expressed the need to impose order on tax competition (including tax schemes for pensioners/residents) at the European level.
While tax incentives remain a tool for attraction, expect continued legislative volatility and possibly moves toward EU-level standardisation to curb competitive tax offerings. Those currently benefiting from special tax regimes should be prepared for potential future adjustments.
Furthermore, while over dozens of presentations and meetings no mention whatsoever has been made of international expats and retirees, there is significant political interest in attracting back Italian citizens (including second and third generations of emigrants—the so-called italo-discendenti) who may not technically be expats but are highly qualified and culturally connected. The government is actively working on proposals, including agreements with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to construct a “Statute of Italians Abroad” to facilitate their return. That said, politicians have expressed puzzlement at the recent citizenship reform, which has made it more difficult for people of Italian heritage to claim citizenship.
Making Southern Italy More Attractive
For retirees and expats considering the South (often targeted by specific schemes, although the 7% flat tax for pensioners has never been mentioned by the commission), the key takeaway is that the government recognises the Mezzogiorno’s low attractiveness even to foreigners.
Future strategies focus heavily on improving the fundamental services and living conditions that deter residency:
- Housing crisis: While this is a lesser concern for most expats and retirees, promoting social housing is a priority, as high living costs (especially housing) in northern cities often deter workers from moving or remaining in Italy. This focus on housing affordability could benefit retirees and workers alike.
- Connectivity and remote work: Interventions are being made to bring high-speed fibre-optic connectivity across the national territory, which would enable agile working (lavoro agile) or South working. This strategy is designed to make remote life in peripheral or southern regions feasible. As we have previously reported, Internet connection speeds is generally improving fast across Italy.
Conclusion: Politicians Have The Right Mindset, But Will They Follow Through?
Based on our insider view through the Commission’s proceedings, the Italian political establishment views the demographic crisis as a long-term structural issue requiring a coherent, systemic response. The desire to inject stability and long-term planning into policies concerning immigration, taxation, and regional development is evident.
For new residents, especially those undertaking significant decisions such as buying property, the persistent high-level discourse indicates a strong commitment to data-driven decision-making and acknowledges that erratic policy changes, like fluctuating tax laws or insufficient services, weaken national stability. Simultaneously, the frequent surprise of politicians at their own government’s actions – such as retracting tax cuts or altering citizenship regulations – casts doubt on the actual timelines for implementing these well-intentioned reforms. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.
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